Thursday, December 27, 2007

World War III?

Yes. Politics. A forum I venture into only rarely on this blog. And even now, I'll be brief. I'll leave out all the background, the nuances, the reasoning for my opinions on this subject.

Benazir Bhutto, former Prime Minister of Pakistan, recently returned to her country after many years of exile. Her return was largely engineered by Condoleezza Rice. As a rival to President Musharraf, her presence there was controversial.

A few hours ago, she was killed in a suicide bombing outside her home. I have long admired this brave woman, and I mourn her loss.

I hope - I very much hope - I'm wrong about a potential consequence of this event.

Her murder will, at the very minimum, cause great unrest in Pakistan and other countries. Uncertainty and instability in worldwide financial markets is almost certain.

Worst of all, this may be the signal event that kicks off a World War III.

From time to time, I hear of books I'd like to read, but won't purchase new because I don't want royalties to accrue to the authors. Sometimes I can find them in our local libraries, or for sale as used books. I like to read viewpoints that are in opposition to mine; to understand those positions means, at the least, that I can argue my contrary position all the better.

One of those books was written by Osama bin Laden. I haven't read it. So I'm not able to personally vouch for the book's contents.

What I hear is this: His primary goal, as stated years ago in that book, was to set things in motion to engulf the US in World War III. If he could take action that would begin the next world war, he'd consider himself a success.

With any serial criminal - and it looks to me like that's a valid description of Bin Laden - it's wise to avoid letting them pull your strings. They are extremely manipulative people. Part of the work of profiling pioneers John Douglas and Robert Ressler of the FBI was geared toward learning how to manipulate the manipulator, for the purpose of capturing those criminals and preventing further crimes.

Roles become reversed; the hunter becomes the hunted, using proactive tactics rather than reactive ones. Time after time, experience has shown this strategy to be far more successful in capturing perpetrators of various types of serial crime. While I'd never pretend to be privy to the secret strategies of anyone's government, it's always seemed to me that most actions against Bin Laden and his ilk have been reactive, including in countries like Pakistan.

If Bin Laden's efforts to pull the strings of people all over the world have now succeeded, his victory will be a very bitter one indeed. Bitter for us, bitter for all lovers of peace and justice throughout the world.


Jan said...

k..words of wisdom.

It's too frightening to even think about.

Desert Cat said...

If certain surmisings I've been making are correct, we can expect the new European Union military to take a lead role in any new conflicts. But they actually have a couple of years to go before the "Beast" is fully manifest--mid 2010 or so.

Nancy said...

I do admit, that when I first heard this had happened I thought: "Have we become witness to the beginning of the end?"

I have a bad feeling about this.

k said...

Jan, people like you and me and Livey and Sue have experienced firsthand a particular type of chaos, of the violent form of anarchy, in our early lives. To project that horror into the great stage of an incident like this? Too frightening even to think about.

Yes. And one of the harsh realities of human existence is, that plays a part in our ability to block these events from our awareness, both before and after they occur. It's an extremely normal and human reaction - yet it's also a counterproductive one. It leaves us ill-prepared, we're caught off guard.

DC, that's only a couple more years down the line, too. Interesting. For now? While the events playing into the larger scenario have been unfolding for years, there are certain discrete points on that continuum. This looks to be one of them.

We'll see.

I'm not sure how much *value* one discrete point on that continuum matters, really. Chaos is chaos.

Nancy, that's pretty much what rocked me when I first saw this news in the early morning hours. That bad feeling is an overpowering one. It's way beyond the grief I feel over the murder of a figure I've admired for so long - one of the very few politicians I've ever admired at all.

Way beyond all that.

pepektheassassin said...

Hers was a lucid voice in a world of lunatics. I, too, am saddened at her loss.

k said...

miss assassin, I was pretty sure you'd be well acquainted with her.

A lucid voice in a world of lunatics. Yes. Breathtakingly so.

And a lucid heart, too. She never lost her feeling for the poor, the hungry, the disempowered. Which, of course, was much of what made her so charismatic, so popular, and so threatening.

Musharraf or any of his supporters who think this might accrue to their benefit, will probably find themselves in error as time unfolds.

OTOH, he may have had little left to lose at this point, anyway.

To whoever engineered it, I hope they feel in themselves the agony they've caused so many others.

sue said...

I'm catching up...

yea, I had these dark thoughts too. We can't let the fear cripple us, tho'...

keep praying.